There were a stack of rumours that flew around prior to Steve Jobs keynote at MacWorld 2006. It's interesting to look back at what has actually happened.
Firstly, my "sure thing" mac mini for the lounge room never appeared. I'm not going to write that one off just yet though. Last year jobs made a few significant announcements spaced a few months apart. However I did read an interview with Jobs from 2003 where he said he does not want to mix specialty hardware with computers because of the complexity for the average user. Perhaps Steve see's the new iMac as the future of home entertainment instead?
The early introduction of the Intel based macs rumour was on target in a big way. Apple claims to have increased their laptop speed by 4-5 times! The analysts seemed to be right on in this respect. They were claiming Apple's laptop range was a hole that Apple needed to fill.
There was also a rumour that iLife 06 was due thanks to a slip up on Apple's web site. This did eventuate.
From what I have read on the keynote "transcript":http://www.engadget.com/2006/01/10/steve-jobs-keynote-live-from-macworld-2006/ I find it interesting that Jobs gave a very balanced speech. He gave as much time to iPods as he did to Mac software which was less than a quarter the size in revenue last year. However, the stock market reports I have read clearly focussed on the financial numbers that beat expecations. I think this is a little short sighted.
As far as the stock goes...
I did have Apple, and all my trading in fact, thrown in the speculative basket. After this keynote I think I may need to allocate more capital to Apple's stock for these reasons:
* The bank returns ~ 5.5% per annum, I am very confident Apple will beat this.
* I see large growth in music downloads and Apple is _the_ player in that market. Did you know they're approaching 1 billion music downloads!
* I see larger growth rates in video downloads over music, and Apple is even more of a key player in that market. Video downloads are an immature market but we all know how big Hollywood is...
* Knowing Jobs and Apple's recent history, we will continue to see the technology pushed to it's limits.
The only thing holding me back at the moment is that Apple's P/E is about 45. From what I can gather, I think the P/E comes down to market sentiment. However, I think the market will continue to back Apple as they continue to do what they have been doing. I still see iTunes as Apple's future cash cow though, overtaking their iPod sales.
At CES google came out with their Google Pack which doesn't do much for me, and they also came out with the Google Video content deals, etc. Did you know you could sell videos through Google before CES? So what did Google actually release at CES... I'll have to have a closer look. Anyway, Apple came out at MacWorld with a bunch of updated and new software, a new laptop range, upgraded hardware, and reports of massive iTunes and iPod sales. If you're an institution with millions/billions to invest, do you think Apple sounds like a good idea.. particularly when you compare them to the mediocre Google? Remember, both these stocks saw 100%+ gains last year!
As an aside - the only thing Google seems to have going for it is the growing online advertising business. A single revenue stream. OK, it's a very large source of revenue that's growing, but it's worth noting.
Also, competition is heating up in the music and video download industry which makes the future a little more uncertain. In the end though, consumers are going to benefit hugely and our lifestyles are going to be shaped accordingly.