You may or may not be aware that I own a web based chat system called ScribbleHere. I recently took a look at other chat systems through Alexa to see if there was something I could learn. Here is some of what I picked up.
I have a list of chat applications that I’ve informally compiled, along with their respective Alexa rating at the time of compilation. I took a handful of the top ranking systems and then plugged them in to Alexa. This didn’t really work as there was a large ranking range between the chat systems. Consequently I split the data in to two sets of both low and high rank.
About The Charts
You can get a bigger version of each chart in a new window by clicking on the chart. Also the two charts are smoothed a lot. I don’t exactly know what the smooth parameter represents, but I guess it’s a daily moving average. If this is the case then it’s a moving average of 30 days. Each chart is a plot of “Reach” data. Here’s how Alexa describes reach:
“Reach measures the number of users. Reach is typically expressed as the percentage of all Internet users who visit a given site. So, for example, if a site like yahoo.com has a reach of 28%, this means that if you took random samples of one million Internet users, you would on average find that 280,000 of them visit yahoo.com. Alexa expresses reach as number of users per million.”
The High Ranking Chats
The high ranking set is composed of Meebo, Userplane, and Spinchat. Meebo aggregates a few instant messenger (IM) systems and whacks on a web based front end. Userplane’s main market is in supplying backend chat solutions, including web cam chat, to other sites such as Friendster. Spinchat looks a bit like MySpace with blogs, photos, etc, but oriented more around real time chat. I couldn’t include massively popular chats supplied by YAHOO, MSN, etc, as Alexa ignores subdomains.
It’s pretty obvious from the chart that Meebo is blowing them away, and more importantly it’s growing linearly while the other two appear to have stagnated (perhaps even slightly in decline?). Userplane is probably well under ranked as I don’t think the data takes in to account the sites that Userplane supplies chat services too. Spinchat sits behind the other two, but there’s no need to feel sorry for it as it still dwarfs the lower ranking sites. In fact, when you compare the scale of the high and low ranking charts there is a magnitude difference.
The Low Ranking Chats
The low ranking chats is composed of Geesee, Lingr, 3Bubbles, Chatango, and my chat service ScribbleHere.
As I mentioned before, there is a magnitude difference in scale between the high and low ranking charts. The lower ranking sites also seem to be in a tighter fight.
Geesee is a chat system where you can embed chats in your own web pages. From memory they have enjoyed a couple of mentions on Techcrunch (maybe other similar sites too?) and consequently benefited from the exposure to TC’s 240,000+ readers. Strangely they appear to be on the decline and I’m not sure why. My money would be on the hype wearing off as appears to be a common TC after affect. It’s also possible that their ranking has suffered from TC taking them off the front page? I seem to recall they were embedded on the front page for a while which would offer terrific exposure. If this is correct and their chat idea still hasn’t caught on, it’s probably a telling sign.
Like Geesee, 3Bubbles has enjoyed some TC exposure. Despite this, I haven’t seen Geesee or 3Bubbles on any sites I’ve ever visited. I suspect that these types of chats may only be popular among the alpha nerds, but alpha nerds have IRC so they are pushing uphill if that’s the case.
I hadn’t heard of Lingr until I emailed Zed Shaw of Mongrel/Ruby fame and saw the address in his email signature. Lingr is more of a chat forum site, with various different chat “rooms” advertised on the front page that you can join. A quick Google showed me that Lingr appears to be popular with Japanese. Ruby has a large Japanese following (Ruby originated in Japan), and Zed is big in the world of Ruby, so perhaps this is where Lingr’s popularity is found. Could Zed be the next Japanse pinup?
I’ve never heard of Chatango, I must have stumbled across it once and added it to my list. Like Geesee and 3Bubbles the idea is that you embed a chat widget within your web page. Their reign over the lower ranking chats appears to be very slowly coming to an end.
ScribbleHere, well, what can I say about the little fighter. It got off to a great start with exposure on the front page of YAHOO’s Application Gallery, and then a minor mention on TC. Since then it’s enjoyed some second hand traffic from my blog. I have a group of hard core ScribbleHere users (my friends) that hang around on the same chat page during work hours. Most of the use to date has consisted of me and my friends chatting, or people testing out the service with random junk. This will change! I hope. I’ve added a tasty flavor to my development version (it’s not live yet), so hopefully it will no longer be yet another vanilla web chat service.
Conclusions
Including Meebo in the charts is not fair to the others as they are leveraging off existing IM networks. However, I think it highlights the power of the network and my belief that people use IM networks because their friends use them rather than any features offered by the IM.
With the data I have looked at there is clearly a correlation between reach and the age of the service. The high ranking domain names were registered in 2003 or earlier. Almost all of the low ranking sites were registered in 2006 running on web 2.0 Ajax fumes, with the exception of Chatango which was registered in 2004. Interestingly Chatango was the benchmark for the low ranking sites until only recently.
I think the widget style chats are fundamentally good ideas, but I think they are off target. The average Joe (or Jill) is simply going to chat with their friends through MSN, friendster, or the copious other established chat services out there. The most realistic use for embedded chat is for live support. Sadly the live support market is well established. The other problem with live support for a small startup is that you need to provide a service guarantee which is hard work and costly.
So, do I think the chat business is saturated? Yes, most definitely (MSN, AIM, etc). I also think the novel angles other startups have taken have not hit upon any previously unknown demand. 37Signals doesn’t show in these charts (they are at 100 on the scale) because they weren’t on my list for some reason, but they were able to leverage their existing network to build their own business focused chat system called Campfire. However, 37Signals enjoy significant exposure, and an existing network of users, and in my mind this was key to their chat success.
I remember reading once that there are three uses of the Internet: communication (IM, Email, etc), entertainment (Gossip sites, videos, etc), and information. While the communication angle for chat seems to be entirely exhausted I still think there is room for chat in information, and entertainment. The answering services in my opinion are positioned within the information category (live support is a domain specific answering service), and IM “kind of” satisfies the entertainment sector.
There is still room for chat services, but only for the brave, bold, and creative.
I’m in the process of maturing the chat platform that sits beneath ScribbleHere, if you are interested in using it in your web site then please contact me.
Ps. 3Bubbles seems to have morphed in to something else?
